Johnson City MSA home price index continues to outperform Kingsport-Bristol market


 By DON FENLEY

All-sales home price indexes in the Tri-Cities were mixed in April.

The longer term trend shows indexes up for the second month, but Kingsport-Bristol’s market is struggling when compared to its neighbor to the south.

In the three-county Johnson City MSA, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 6.1% in April  compared to April last year. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 4.3% compared to March.

April was the 29th straight month the all-sales index has increased in the Johnson City MSA.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 6.7% in April compared to last year. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices increased by 4.9% in April when compared to March.

In Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 0.6% in April compared to April last year.  It was the second month this year the index fell below last year’s price performance. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 1.2% in April.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 1.6% in April, On the month-over-month metric, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices increased by 2.2%.

April’s national HIP analysis shows that home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 6.8% in April compared with April 2014. This change represents 38 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 2.7%.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 6.8% in April compared with April last year and increased by 2.3% month over month compared with March 2015.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 1.1%t month over month from April 2015 to May 2015 and by 5.35%** on a year-over-year basis from April 2015 to April 2016.

For the first four months of 2015, home sales were up 9% compared to the same period a year ago,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “One byproduct of the increased sales activity is rising house prices, and, as a result, month-over-month home prices are up almost 3% for April 2015 and up more than 6% from a year ago.”

“Old fashion supply and demand fueled by historically low mortgage rates and improving consumer finances and confidence, continue to push home prices up,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect continued price appreciation throughout 2015 and into next year. Over the longer term, household formation, up by more than one million over the past year alone, will drive down vacancy rates and create tighter housing markets in many metropolitan areas. This should provide the necessary underpinning for rising prices for the foreseeable future.”

The CoreLogic HPI is a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes.

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