Tri-Cities’ MSAs home prices up in March, continue roller coaster performance


 By DON FENLEY

The Tri-Cities’ two Home Price Indices turned higher in March in a continuation of the roller coaster performance  that began November last year.

Mar 2015According to CoreLogic’s March report:

JOHNSON CITY MSA

  • – Home prices, including distressed sales, increased 2% compared to March 2014. On a month-over-month basis there were up 1.7% compared to February

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased  5.9% compared to March 2014. On a month-over-month basis they were up  2.5% from February 2015.

The Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors’ Trends Report showed a March average price upswing compared to the same month last year that matches the ChoreLogic HPI. The Trends Report shows first quarter prices made a good gain compared to last year and set that three-county market on a better pace to recoup the 1.3% annual price decline it posted last year.

KINGSPORT-BRISTOL MSA

  • The March HPI was the same as it was last year. On a month-over-month basis it was up 1.7%.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 0.5% in March and were up 1.5% compared to February.

The four-county Kingsport-Bristol market’s HPI trend line shows a steeper declines and weaker gains that match the Johnson City MSA pattern.

NETAR’s Trends Report showed Kingsport-Bristol average prices declining by 5.8% from March last year and with a 0.5% increase for the first quarter compared to the first three months of last year.

Although the region’s HPI’s are showing big swings they are positive compared to last year and the longer term.  The just haven’t kept pace with the national trend after their post-recession annual average price high in 2013.

So far this year, the large markets have underperformed the smaller market. But the smaller market growth has been enough to bolster price performance on the MSA level.

March was the 28th straight monthly year-over-year gain in Johnson City.

Kingsport-Bristol HPI has dipped into negative territory twice in the past 30 month and March’s year-to-year performance was flat.

Nationwide, CoreLogic March HPI shows that home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 5.9% compared with March 2014. This change represents 37 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, increased 2%t in March.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 6.1%t in March 2015 and were up 2% from February. Excluding distressed sales, only New Mexico (0.4%) showed year-over-year depreciation in March. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate-owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 0.8% month over month from March to April and on a year-over-year basis by 5.1%. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to increase by 0.7% March 2015 to April 2015 and by 4.7% year over year from March 2015 to March 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

The HPI forecast is not computed to the MSA level.

“All signs are pointing toward continued price appreciation throughout 2015. In fact, the strong month-over-month gain in March may be a harbinger of accelerating price appreciation as we enter the spring selling season,” said Annand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Tight inventories, job growth and the inexorable impact of demographics and household formation are pushing price levels in many states, and especially large metropolitan areas like Dallas, Denver, Houston, Seattle and San Francisco, toward record levels.”

 

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