Tri-Cities home price indexes continue softer prices trend


By DON FENLEY

Tri-Cities home prices continued advancing a softer price trend according to the current CoreLogic Home Price Index.

Feb2014Prices in both of the MSAs that make up the Tri-Cities are positive when compared to the same months of the previous year, but have been receding since last September.  In February the Tri-Cities’ HPI year-to-year trend moved sharply down compared to the national HOP which was up for the second straight month.

According to CoreLogic, Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 1.3% in February 2015 compared to February 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, decreased by 0.6% compared to January 2015.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 1.2% in February 2015 compared to February 2014. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices decreased by 0.6% compared to January 2015.

In Johnson City, home prices, increased by 0.9% in February 2015 compared to February 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, decreased by 1.4% compared to January 2015.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 3.5% in February.  On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices increased by 2.2% compared to January 2015.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices nationwide are projected to increase by 0.6% month over month from February 2015 to March 2015 and on a year-over-year basis by 5.1%. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to increase by 0.5% and by 4.8% year over year. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables and is not available on the MSA level. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Since the second half of 2014, the dwindling supply of affordable inventory has led to stabilization in home price growth with a particular uptick in low-end home price growth over the last few months,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “From February 2014 to February 2015, low-end home prices increased by 9.3% compared to 4.8% for high-end home prices, a gap that is three times the average historical difference.”

“This is the hottest home price appreciation prior to the spring selling season in nine years,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Assuming a benign interest rate environment and continued strong consumer confidence, we expect home prices to rise by an additional five percent over the next twelve months.”

The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes.

NETAR’s Trends Report, which monitors average prices for homes listed on the local MLS, shows a gradual increase in prices on the year-over-year metric.  In February they were 7.5% better than February 2014, an improvement over the 1.4% January-to-January increase.  Monthly sales have trended higher since hitting a low six months ago. The four-county MSA’s annual average price declined by 0.3% in 2014 after two improving years.

A similar sales price trend performance can be seen in the three-county Johnson City MSA. The average price was 4.2% higher in February than the same month last year. And, like Kingsport-Bristol, the 2014 annual average price retreated after two annual increased. The 2014 annual price was down 1.3% compared to 2013.

 

 

 

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